Eskom’s electricity capacity to meet demand until 2021

Additional capacity from Eskom and non-Eskom sources this year and next year would ensure enough electricity capacity to meet medium to high demand, according to the utility’s medium-term system adequacy outlook for this year to 2021. The medium-term system adequacy outlook gave an indication of generation adequacy to meet expected electricity demand for the next six years. Eskom power stations, power imports and independent power producers (IPPs) contracted to the power utility provided about 96 percent of the power in South Africa, Eskom said in the report. Stable power supply is critical for economic growth. National Treasury director-general Lungisa Fuzile said last month that the resolution of energy constraints could add between 0.8 percent and 1 percent to the country’s growth.

Under pressure to conduct maintenance on its plants, Eskom last year implemented load shedding, which contributed to the country’s financial woes. However, the utility had improved the so-called energy availability factor. In its corporate plan, Eskom was aiming for a 78 percent energy availability factor. In October, the energy availability factor was just under 70 percent. Eskom said additional capacity from mid-merit and peaking resources this year and next year would ensure system adequacy. The additional capacity would ensure that the utility could meet high demand. Group executive for generation, Matshela Koko, recently said the Ingula pumped storage scheme would supply the mid-merit capacity. Mid-merit plants filled the gap between peak load and base load. Koko said the peaking capacity would come from the Department of Energy’s Avon and Dedisa peaking power plants.

S&P Global Ratings commended the strides Eskom had made to ensure provision of reliable energy through improved plant maintenance and additional power from new plants and renewable energy producers. The agency said the improved energy supply had contributed to its decision to maintain the country’s investment-grade rating. According to Eskom, key assumptions to determine system adequacy were forecast demand, available resources to meet demand, the performance of plant and the commercial operation dates of the plants under construction. “The leading interventions to attain system adequacy are improving plant performance, completion of the build programme and other resource options that can contribute in the appropriate time frames,” Eskom said. In the adequacy report, Eskom factored the commissioning of several units of Medupi and Kusile power stations, as well as Ingula. It also included projects under the renewable energy IPP programme and co-generation projects.

But Eskom excluded the mooted coal-fired base load IPP plant and the gas-to-power IPP procurement programme as these were expected to come into operation after 2021. Eskom’s plants under construction – Medupi, Kusile and Ingula – were expected to add 6 454 megawatts of base-load power by 2021, whereas the renewable energy power producers would add another 1 760MW. Eskom said the base load capacity excluded the final unit of Kusile, planned for commercial service in 2022.